Coming out of last month’s annual Lodging Conference in Phoenix, hoteliers have every reason to feel optimistic as analyst after analyst expressed confidence that the industry’s strong performance was likely to continue through 2016 into 2017 and beyond.

Highly regarded Smith Travel Research, for example, reported that year-to-date through August, all U.S. key performance indicators (occupancy, ADR and RevPAR chief among them) were at all-time highs.

That certainly is excellent news and owners, and operators can rightfully congratulate themselves. Overall, they are managing revenue and expenses more effectively than ever, thanks to new methodologies and technologies.

However, the hotel business − like most others − is cyclical, and history tells us that the good times won’t last forever. Analysts are less optimistic about the overall economy.

Hotels in the “oil markets” of North Dakota, West Texas, Oklahoma, among others, already are struggling with oil prices depressed. New York City, traditionally the most robust hotel market in the country, is slightly off its peak.

M&R Hotel Management takes pride in the industry’s impressive results in 2015 and looks forward to an equally healthy 2016. At the same time, we encourage our managers and associates not to become complacent.

Delivering first-class guest service is at the core of our operating model, day in and day out, regardless of where we stand in the business cycle. Positive RevPAR forecasts are encouraging but won’t distract us from our mission.