The old adage that the lodging industry is a cyclical business seems to be proving accurate once again. Data from reliable industry sources, including Smith Travel Research, seems to indicate that after nearly 10 years of growth, the industry’s sustained period of growth is encountering a rough patch.
STR is forecasting year-over-year occupancy in the U.S. this year to be flat, the first time this has been the case in 10 years. Continued supply growth, meanwhile, is expected to have a negative impact on occupancy. Similarly, STR is expecting average daily rates to remain about the same in 2019 and then again in 2020.
For veteran managers of established hotels, industry downturns present a challenge, regardless of how many times they have been through them. Yet, like so many setbacks in business, the flip side of adversity in the short term is opportunity in the long term, if you can perceive it.
Certainly, no one solution fits all. Markets vary by size and region of the country, center-city versus suburban and by asset class. The luxury and resort segments may be more vulnerable than the upscale tier and the upscale tier more at risk than midscale. Indeed, limited-service hotels may end up benefitting, thanks to the value segment of the traveling public, especially if the national economy starts to soften as well.
Downturns give managers the opportunity to refocus their present operations in a way that may not have had the same sense of urgency in better times. They have the chance to restructure operations to ensure that the best use is being made of associates’ time and talents. It’s an opportunity, furthermore, to ensure that the quality of guest services has not suffered, despite fewer resources possibly being available.
In other words, it’s a chance to come up with creative solutions that not only add value in the downturn but become standard operating procedure going forward.